To qualify as a value bet, the odds to success must be greater than the probability of success. Inaccurate score betting, the odds are lower for a lower score and higher for a higher score.
Bookmakers often overprice correct score bets on the likelihood of the team winning instead of the amount of goals each team tends to score.
The chances of the proper score are 'incorrect' if the teams are equally matched in terms of winning, but their scoring tendencies are vastly different.
The data following is collected within the English Premier League. However, most of the major European Leagues have similar percentage outcomes across a season. Pay Close Attention To One Specific Type Of Score
Though the odds for closer games may be lower, I find that they provide more value overall.
The only conceivable outcomes in a low-scoring game are a 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, or 1-1 draw.
Even though you may anticipate one side will be the winner and both sides will score goals, the possible final scores are 3-1, 4-1, 4-2, etc if you expect a high-scoring game.
You can obtain odds of roughly 6/1 if you bet on a favorite winning 1-0 and around 25/1 if you bet on the underdog winning 3-2.
I guess that most gamblers have a success percentage of more than four times as high when selecting 1-0s as they do when picking 3-2s, making the 1-0s the superior value.
The boring draw refund offered by many bookmakers is just another argument in favor of focusing on lower scorelines. If you are betting on a 1-0 or 1-1 game outcome, the 0-0 scoreline is the biggest danger to your wager not being a winning one; therefore, getting your investment back if that happens may be a significant assist to your profitability.
In most circumstances, if a draw seems likely (0-0), it is still preferable to take the slightly lower odds offered by bookmakers like Bet365 than the slightly better odds offered by other books on certain games.
You'll be in a tough time if you attempt to predict several right scores after perusing the Premier League schedule. The Premier League is known for its high-scoring games, making low-scoring results difficult to predict.
Games in certain competitions and countries are significantly closer than in others.
Lower divisions in some nations tend to have low-scoring games. Therefore it's important to research all the leagues that your favorite bookies provide odds on.
While betting on both teams to score correctly in a single match may be profitable in certain circumstances, the combined odds of approximately 2/1 mean you'll need a high strike rate to break even.
While perusing the weekly form guide, you may encounter a few games that you believe will most likely end in a score of 1-0 or 1-1. Cross doubles are a good choice in this situation.
If you place four cross doubles, you will have winnings of roughly 30/1. If the 0-0 refund offer covers your games, you will have practically three outcomes covered in each match for only four bets.
When betting on the league a bettor is less familiar with, and it is a prudent strategy to back low scores in the correct score market. This is true whether a bettor makes a single correct score bet each week or a fortunate 15 with four right scores.
Although bookmakers have become savvier in recent years and now offer astonishing accurate score odds in certain leagues, affordable correct score bets may still be found if you put in the time to do your homework.
Back
