Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 42 home runs — already on pace to challenge his own single-season record. The Red Sox rotation has struggled on the road (4.82 ERA away from Fenway), and the Yankees' home record is excellent at 38-18. The Bronx Bombers' bullpen, anchored by their dominant closer with a 1.82 ERA, gives them a decisive late-game edge. We back New York to win and cover the -1.5 run line at home.