Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Predictions

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Money Line Pick

One of the simplest pitching matchups on Sunday are going to be in Cincinnati as Corbin Burnes will duel Sonny Gray. Burnes pitched two innings within the All-Star Game which was the foremost of any pitcher and ended up being the losing pitcher after allowing two runs on four hits. The Brewers probably weren’t too proud of Dave Roberts for having Burnes throw 35 pitches when it had been alleged to be an extended break for Burnes who threw 87.2 innings within the half of the season. Regardless, it's been 10 days since Burnes’ last start and within the half of the season when he was given six or more days of rest compared to his normal five days, his ERA dropped to 1.56 and held opponents to a .150 batting average. His Baseball Savant page is actually remarkable because the only two categories he doesn't rank within the 94th percentile or above in is fastball velocity and max exit velocity which shows how dominant he has been because the second option within the Brewers starting rotation.

It was an excellent half of the season for Gray who has blossomed into the ace of the Cincinnati staff. He features a 3.19 ERA with a solid 30.2 percent strikeout rate and has the second lowest xBA of his last seven seasons. Something that doesn’t add up for Gray is he ranks within the 92nd percentile for hard hit rate, yet has the very best solid contact rate of his career. But a reason for this might be he throws his sinker and curveball for the bulk of his pitches which has worked well for him while his fastball has been his problem when he decides to throw it since opponents have a .339 xBA against the pitch. His offense is stronger than Milwaukee’s on paper, but Nick Castellanos wasn't within the lineup on Saturday and should miss Sunday’s game which might be an enormous loss for the Reds. The Brewers have won five of Burnes’ last seven starts and with Milwaukee’s offense finally coming alive, back them at the cash line on Sunday.

The fact that this total may be a t eight runs is a head scratcher. Burnes has been incredible this season and has been pitching better than his stats say which is sort of impressive considering his low ERA. He features a 1.85 xERA and a .171 xBA which are both within the top three percent within the league and only five of his 15 starts have combined for quite eight runs.

Gray has been a solid play reception as only two of his six starts at Great American Ball Park have combined for over eight runs. The weather will help the pitchers also since it'll be a gorgeous day in Cincinnati with the wind blowing in from left field at around 8-10 miles per hour. Back these two pitchers and expect this total to drop to a minimum of 7.5 by first pitch.

* Under 8 line playable at time of publishing. Playable right down to 7.5 *